Basic HTML Version
By Laurie Butler,
First American Title
Inside
Line
I
Your
Industry
LEGISLATION • GOVERNMENT RELATIONS • POLITICS •
JANUARY, 2013
• PAGE 9
HBA
News
HOME BUILDING
HBA
PDX
.
ORG
PROTECTING
For those members who do
not know me, I work in the Build-
ers Services Department at First
American Title and am in daily
contact with builders and devel-
opers in our tri-county area. The
pulse of this marketplace as it ap-
plies to builders and developers
was much faster and stronger in
2012. Our department became
three strong in October of 2011
when Katie Frahm joined me and
Drake Butsch. Even with a team
of three there are times when we
struggle to keep up with the daily
workload here.
I attended the Housing Fore-
cast breakfast last week and lis-
tened to the different speakers
and their forecast for the coming
year. I was ecstatic to hear that
the forecast going forward is for
a steady upward climb which cor-
responds with the activity here in
our department at First Ameri-
can. Much of the information we
received was national and state
to state as well as some informa-
tion for our local tri-county mar-
ketplace. I thought you might
find it interesting if I broke out
the permit data by county and
number of projects selling.
In 2011 single family building
permits for Clackamas County
totaled 796 while year to date in
2012 they were at 932. That’s a
positive difference of 136 homes.
In Washington County for 2011
the single family permits totaled
825 and year to date in 2012
we’re up to 1032. In Multnomah
County the single family permits
for 2011 totaled 455 and in 2012
they ended at 587. Overall in the
Tri-county, we’re up by 475. In
looking over some information
from New Home Trends there are
111 currently selling detached
developments in Clackamas
County and its municipalities, 97
for Washington County and 50 for
Multnomah County.
These statistics were taken
from Construction Monitor and
New Home Trends and do not
reflect the total year-end figures
for 2012.
In the Housing Forecast break-
fast there was a mention of our
constraints here due to the tight
Urban Growth Boundary and
a dwindling supply of lots and
shovel ready land. Even though
we did receive approval of the
Urban Growth Boundary decision
it has now been appealed so we
await the outcome. I know of one
municipality that has gone for-
ward in planning these areas but
Oregon Update
Kitzhaber announces legislative special
session to address Single Sales Factor.
What is it and is it good for business?
—See page 10
Around the Region goes digital
HBA Government relations to roll out a new
web portal to address regional and county
issues in real time at
www.hbapdx.org/
government-relations.
—See page 10
See INSIDE LINE/ page 10
By Jon Bell
For the HBA
Something that has been
hard to come by over the past
few years at the HBA’s Annual
Housing Forecasts made a
noticeable return at this year’s
event: laughter.
Whether it was in response
to a slide showing Federal
reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
throwing handfuls of money out
the window or to a crack about
the influx of new homebuyers on
the market now that the Occupy
Wall Street movement is over,
laughter set a lighter tone for
this year’s Housing Forecast. And
suggests that, even though the
homebuilding industry may still
be in recovery, some optimism is
finding its way back in.
“We are so happy to not be
where we were,” said Ken Perry,
president and CEO of Broker
Knowledge Group, a mortgage
consultancy and training provider
and one of three speakers at the
Forecast. “We’re moving forward,
and I think, together with that
positive outlook and watching
the numbers, we are in for a really
cool ride.”
Perry was joined on the stage
at the Oregon Convention Center
on Wednesday, Dec. 5, by robert
Denk, Assistant Vice President for
Forecasting and Analysis for the
National Association of Home
Builders, and Tom Potiowsky,
Director of the Nor thwest
Economic research Center at
Portland State University.
Denk kicked
off the Forecast
with a look at the
bigger national
housing picture.
One of his line
graphs showed
the giant peak
of the housing
boom, which
he at tr ibuted
l a r g e l y
t o
ove rbu i l d i ng ,
and the stark
dropof f that
ensued.
“If this is our sin, this has
been our punishment,” he said,
pointing first to the former, then
the later point on the graph.
“I think we’re pretty much
repentant now. We’ve paid our
dues.”
Denk noted that nationally,
the industry has seen a slow
improvement in housing starts,
which began at the end of
last year and has continued
throughout 2012. Starts are still
at about 41 percent of average
— Denk said a good number for
average is the roughly 1.3 million
starts the country saw in 2003
— but that’s an improvement
from their lowest point back in
2009, when they hit 27 percent of
average.
“We ’ r e a t
41 pe r cent
of the prior
normal,” Denk
said. “That ’s
encouraging
but i t al so
indicates that
we have a long
way to go.”
By the end
of 2013, starts
are expected
to be at about
55 percent of
average, and
a year later, they should be up
to about 70 percent of average.
Denk also noted that the recent
increase in starts is a real one
and not fueled by the first-time
homebuyer credit, which sparked
a slight rise in 2010.
“This is organic,” Denk said,
“and that is fundamental to
getting back on track.”
In addition to improved
housing starts, prices have begun
to rebound as well. They peaked
in 2006 nationally and then
dropped off, but Denk said the
steep decline eventually lead to
“normalization and stabilization”
in prices. Now they are on a slow
rise again, though Denk added
the prices usually tend to head
down during the colder months
and rise during the warmer ones.
“But the most important part
. . . is the increase we’ve seen
recently,” he said. “All indicators
are showing improvements in
recent months.”
One area that is still proving
to be troublesome nationally
is foreclosures. Though there
have been some improvements,
Denk said foreclosures still
“remain a problem and remain
a headwind.” Oregon, however,
seems to be faring better than
many of the worst-hit parts of the
country.
“Portland and Oregon aren’t
going to have the sor t of
foreclosure problems that places
like Las Vegas and beachfront
Florida are going to have,” he
said.
Pot iowsk y, who i s al so
the former state economist
for Oregon, kicked of f his
presentation with a quote from
Shakespeare’s “
King Henry VIII”
to
describe the recovery process for
A large crowd at the annual
2013 Housing Forecast
listen with rapt attention to
Robert Denk of the NAHB.
Forecast for 2013: the
skies over homebuilding
are clearing, but slowly
See FORECAST/ page 10
KEN PERRY,
President and CEO of Broker
Knowledge Group
We’re moving forward,
and I think, together with
that positive outlook and
watching the numbers, we
are in for a really cool ride.